President Barack Obama
returns to Washington on Sunday after a brief
summer vacation readying for what is expected
to be a rocky autumn dominated by showdowns
with Republicans. Obama interrupted an eight-day break at
exclusive Martha’s Vineyard last week to
denounce the bloody crackdown in Cairo by
Egypt’s military. But the turmoil there, and the upcoming G20
summit in Russia early next month, are poised
to take a backseat to the domestic agenda with
Republicans threatening a government
shutdown in October over the budget and debt
ceiling. Republicans hold a majority in the House of
Representatives and retain a big enough
minority in the Senate to potentially block any
budget put before them before the start of the
new fiscal year on October 1. Without an agreement, the federal government
could potentially be forced to shutter ‘non-
essential’ administrative services such as
passport and visa processing. Since regaining control of the House in 2011,
Republicans have repeatedly threatened a
shutdown in confrontations with Obama before
pulling back from the brink at the last minute. This year however, a hardcore of Republicans
have promised there will be no climbdown as
they attempt to stymie implementation of a
major part of Obama’s cherished healthcare
reforms, which is due to take effect. Americans without health insurance can begin
to register for markets in each state which will
be subsidized by the federal government from
October 1. However some hardline
Republicans, who have held 40 symbolic votes
to repeal Obama’s healthcare legislation, have vowed to block any budget which provides
funding for the scheme. Thomas Mann, a Congressional scholar, at the
Brookings Institution said the Republicans
would be making a disastrous strategic move if
they pursued a government shutdown. “The Republicans have as much leverage as a
suicide bomber,” he told AFP. “If they are willing to see their party damaged
possibly beyond repair, they could inflict real
harm on the country. “I am encouraged by the increasing number of
Republican voices calling the Tea Party strategy
crazy and suicidal.” Obama, who will conduct a whistle-stop bus
tour on Thursday and Friday to outline his
vision for the economy, warned against a
shutdown. “The idea that you would shut down the
government unless you prevent 30 million
people from getting health care is a bad idea,”
Obama said during a press conference on
August 9. “What you should be thinking about is how can
we advance and improve ways for middle-class
families to have some security so that if they
work hard, they can get ahead and their kids
can get ahead.” Obama wants to scrap tax breaks for the
wealthy and reform the corporate tax code
while investing in infrastructure and education,
measures the Republicans are opposed to. The chronic failure of both sides to find
common ground on taxes already led to the
budget sequester in March which forced
spending cuts to a range of federal programs. The threat of fiscal crisis has also been
heightened by the need to raise the debt
ceiling, another prerogative of Congress which
the Republicans are in a position to block. The
Treasury has warned they will run out of
options to prevent a default by mid-October. The Republican’s House leader John Boehner
has said any increase in the debt ceiling must
be matched by spending cuts, repeating his
stance from a similar stand-off in 2011 when
the United States only narrowly avoided a
default. Obama meanwhile is yet to chalk up a success
on his legislative agenda in the eight months of
his second term. The White House however hopes the House of
Representatives will follow the Senate by
approving proposed immigration reform this
autumn. Again however, a faction of Republican
lawmakers, eyes already fixed on the
November 2014 mid-term elections, have
spoken out against Obama’s proposed
reforms, alleging they represent an “amnesty”
for illegal immigrants. “It’s a long shot on immigration reform but not
impossible,” said Mann. “If immigration reform
fails to pass, the Republicans, not Obama, will
pay the political price in 2016 and beyond.”
returns to Washington on Sunday after a brief
summer vacation readying for what is expected
to be a rocky autumn dominated by showdowns
with Republicans. Obama interrupted an eight-day break at
exclusive Martha’s Vineyard last week to
denounce the bloody crackdown in Cairo by
Egypt’s military. But the turmoil there, and the upcoming G20
summit in Russia early next month, are poised
to take a backseat to the domestic agenda with
Republicans threatening a government
shutdown in October over the budget and debt
ceiling. Republicans hold a majority in the House of
Representatives and retain a big enough
minority in the Senate to potentially block any
budget put before them before the start of the
new fiscal year on October 1. Without an agreement, the federal government
could potentially be forced to shutter ‘non-
essential’ administrative services such as
passport and visa processing. Since regaining control of the House in 2011,
Republicans have repeatedly threatened a
shutdown in confrontations with Obama before
pulling back from the brink at the last minute. This year however, a hardcore of Republicans
have promised there will be no climbdown as
they attempt to stymie implementation of a
major part of Obama’s cherished healthcare
reforms, which is due to take effect. Americans without health insurance can begin
to register for markets in each state which will
be subsidized by the federal government from
October 1. However some hardline
Republicans, who have held 40 symbolic votes
to repeal Obama’s healthcare legislation, have vowed to block any budget which provides
funding for the scheme. Thomas Mann, a Congressional scholar, at the
Brookings Institution said the Republicans
would be making a disastrous strategic move if
they pursued a government shutdown. “The Republicans have as much leverage as a
suicide bomber,” he told AFP. “If they are willing to see their party damaged
possibly beyond repair, they could inflict real
harm on the country. “I am encouraged by the increasing number of
Republican voices calling the Tea Party strategy
crazy and suicidal.” Obama, who will conduct a whistle-stop bus
tour on Thursday and Friday to outline his
vision for the economy, warned against a
shutdown. “The idea that you would shut down the
government unless you prevent 30 million
people from getting health care is a bad idea,”
Obama said during a press conference on
August 9. “What you should be thinking about is how can
we advance and improve ways for middle-class
families to have some security so that if they
work hard, they can get ahead and their kids
can get ahead.” Obama wants to scrap tax breaks for the
wealthy and reform the corporate tax code
while investing in infrastructure and education,
measures the Republicans are opposed to. The chronic failure of both sides to find
common ground on taxes already led to the
budget sequester in March which forced
spending cuts to a range of federal programs. The threat of fiscal crisis has also been
heightened by the need to raise the debt
ceiling, another prerogative of Congress which
the Republicans are in a position to block. The
Treasury has warned they will run out of
options to prevent a default by mid-October. The Republican’s House leader John Boehner
has said any increase in the debt ceiling must
be matched by spending cuts, repeating his
stance from a similar stand-off in 2011 when
the United States only narrowly avoided a
default. Obama meanwhile is yet to chalk up a success
on his legislative agenda in the eight months of
his second term. The White House however hopes the House of
Representatives will follow the Senate by
approving proposed immigration reform this
autumn. Again however, a faction of Republican
lawmakers, eyes already fixed on the
November 2014 mid-term elections, have
spoken out against Obama’s proposed
reforms, alleging they represent an “amnesty”
for illegal immigrants. “It’s a long shot on immigration reform but not
impossible,” said Mann. “If immigration reform
fails to pass, the Republicans, not Obama, will
pay the political price in 2016 and beyond.”
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